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Analysis

Insights & Thought Leadership

Strategic perspectives on geopolitical risk, global governance, and the structural forces reshaping the international order.

Thomas E. Donilon delivering strategic analysis on the new world order
Featured Analysis

Navigating the New World Disorder: A Framework for Strategic Decision-Making

The rules-based international order that characterized the post-Cold War era is giving way to a more contested, multipolar landscape. The assumptions that guided strategic planning for three decades — American primacy, economic globalization, institutional multilateralism — are being challenged simultaneously by revisionist powers, populist movements, and technological disruption.

This analysis presents a framework for understanding the structural forces driving this transformation and the strategic choices facing policymakers and investors in an era of unprecedented complexity.

Featured Perspective →
Thomas E. Donilon discussing great power competition and geopolitical strategy
Geopolitics

The New Great Power Competition

The international system is undergoing its most significant transformation since the end of the Cold War. The rise of revisionist powers, the contestation of norms, and the fragmentation of the rules-based order demand a fundamental rethinking of strategic assumptions.

Analysis of technology's role in national security strategy
Technology & Security

Technology as a Vector of National Power

Artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biotechnology are reshaping the foundations of national power. The countries and corporations that master these technologies will define the strategic landscape of the 21st century.

Thomas E. Donilon on global economic restructuring
Global Economy

The Rewiring of Global Economic Architecture

Supply chain diversification, friend-shoring, and the weaponization of economic interdependence are fundamentally altering the structure of the global economy. Investors must understand the geopolitical drivers behind these shifts.

Thomas E. Donilon analyzing alliance systems and multilateral frameworks
Alliances

The Future of the Alliance System

America's network of alliances remains its most significant strategic asset, but these relationships require modernization to address 21st-century challenges — from cyber threats to climate-driven instability and the rise of new power centers.

Thomas E. Donilon on nuclear strategy and non-proliferation
Nuclear Security

Nuclear Risk in a Multipolar World

The erosion of arms control frameworks, the modernization of nuclear arsenals, and the proliferation of delivery systems are creating a more dangerous nuclear landscape than any period since the height of the Cold War.

Thomas E. Donilon discussing the intersection of climate and geopolitics
Climate & Security

Climate Change as a Security Multiplier

Climate change is not merely an environmental challenge but a threat multiplier that exacerbates existing geopolitical tensions, drives migration, disrupts supply chains, and creates new vectors of interstate competition.

Analytical Tools

Strategic Decision Frameworks

Geopolitical Mapping

Systematic identification of power dynamics, alliance structures, and pressure points across regions of strategic significance.

Risk Matrix Analysis

Multi-dimensional assessment of probability, impact, and velocity of geopolitical risks across investment horizons.

Scenario Planning

Development of alternative future scenarios to stress-test strategic assumptions and prepare for non-linear developments.

Stakeholder Dynamics

Analysis of key actors, their interests, capabilities, and decision-making calculus in complex geopolitical situations.

Selected Works

Key Publications & Speeches

2023 The Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Investment Implications BII Research
2022 Great Power Competition and the Future of the Global Economic Order Policy Paper
2021 Technology Competition as a National Security Imperative Keynote
2020 Pandemic, Geopolitics, and the New Investment Landscape BII Research
2019 The U.S.-China Relationship: A Framework for Strategic Competition Policy Paper
2018 Cyber Threats and Financial System Resilience Keynote
2013 The United States and the Asia-Pacific in 2013 — Keynote at Asia Society Major Speech
2013 Cybersecurity and U.S. National Security — New York Economic Club Major Speech
"Strategic thinking is not prediction — it is the disciplined exploration of possibilities and the preparation of frameworks to respond to whichever future materializes."
— Thomas E. Donilon